As global temperatures continue to climb, the serene mountain landscapes of Bhutan are facing an unseen menace beneath their icy façade. Scientists from Bhutan’s National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM) are embarking on a groundbreaking study to investigate the presence and implications of permafrost in the region—a move that could unveil critical insights into climate change’s multifaceted impacts on the Hindu Kush Himalaya.
Permafrost, the permanently frozen ground that blankets vast swathes of the Arctic, Antarctica, and high-altitude regions, has long been recognized as a significant carbon sink, locking away plant and animal matter for millennia. However, with rising temperatures, this frozen reservoir is at risk of thawing, potentially destabilizing mountain slopes, disrupting vital water systems, and releasing trapped greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
“For the first time, we are assessing whether permafrost exists in Bhutan and how it is reacting to our changing climate,” explained Karma, Chief of the Cryosphere Services Division at NCHM. “Confirming its presence is essential for us to understand its effects on water resources, disaster risks, and the livelihoods of our communities.”
Supported by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Bhutan’s initiative aims to shed light on an often-overlooked aspect of climate change in one of the world’s most climatically sensitive regions. ICIMOD’s probabilistic mapping has indicated a high likelihood of permafrost existing above 4,500 meters in Bhutan. To validate these findings, NCHM has deployed 19 temperature sensors in the Yaree La area, the headwaters of the Thim Chhu river, to monitor ground temperatures over the next two years.
If the sensors consistently register temperatures below freezing, with only minor increases during summer months, it will confirm the presence of permafrost. “Depending on the success of this partnership, we plan to extend our permafrost assessment and monitoring efforts to other parts of the country,” Karma added.
The global implications of permafrost thawing are profound. Comparable to the ice loss in Antarctica, the melting of permafrost worldwide contributes to rising sea levels and the release of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. These emissions exacerbate global warming, creating a dangerous feedback loop that accelerates further thawing. Additionally, thawing permafrost may unlock ancient viruses and diseases, posing new health risks.
Lessons from the Arctic underscore the urgency of Bhutan’s study. In regions like Yakutia, Russia, where permafrost underlies 80% of the land, thawing has already wreaked havoc on infrastructure and disrupted traditional lifestyles. Indigenous communities, reliant on practices such as fishing, hunting, and herding, find their ways of life threatened as the landscape becomes unstable.
For Bhutan, the stakes are similarly high. Although the country is renowned for its commitment to remaining carbon-negative, current emissions assessments do not account for potential greenhouse gas releases from permafrost thawing. Should permafrost be confirmed, Bhutan could gain invaluable data on its role in global climate dynamics, informing both national strategies and international climate models.
Moreover, the potential disruption to local water supplies and livelihoods in Bhutan’s high-altitude communities could have cascading effects on the nation’s economy and social fabric. Nomadic herders and cordyceps collectors, who inhabit these fragile ecosystems, may face unprecedented challenges if their environment becomes increasingly unpredictable.
As the world grapples with the escalating impacts of climate change, Bhutan’s proactive approach to studying permafrost represents a crucial step in understanding and mitigating one of the many hidden threats posed by a warming planet. The outcomes of this pioneering research could not only safeguard Bhutan’s mountainous regions but also contribute significantly to the global discourse on climate resilience and adaptation.
