In recent years, the United States has progressively tightened its grip on China’s access to high technology, aiming to slow down China’s advancements and protect its own competitive edge. This policy, initiated under the Trump administration, has continued under President Joe Biden. Despite this adversarial stance, the US has shown some openness to cooperation with China in the realm of artificial intelligence (AI). Over the past year, various governmental exchanges have highlighted the US’s willingness to collaborate with China on establishing a global framework for AI regulation.
A significant example of this cooperative spirit was the inclusion of a Chinese delegation at the inaugural global AI Safety Summit at Bletchley Park last November. This event, which likely required US approval given its close ties with the UK, underscored a willingness to engage in dialogue. More recently, senior officials from both nations met in Switzerland to discuss AI, signaling China’s reemergence on the global AI stage. However, despite these cooperative gestures, the technological rivalry between the US and China in AI is set to escalate.
The strategic importance of AI is a driving factor behind the US’s continued pressure on China. AI technology holds the potential to revolutionize production processes, enhance supply chain management, optimize product design, and boost overall efficiency and innovation. Furthermore, AI plays a critical role in scientific research and technological innovation, aiding in large-scale data analysis and simulation experiments. Its transformative nature extends to military efficiency and strike capabilities, making mastery of AI technology a significant factor in global politics and economics.
A recent report by MacroPolo, the think tank of the Paulson Institute, highlights the US’s dominant position in the global AI talent field. While the US remains the undisputed global leader, China’s strength in talent cultivation and growth prospects is notable. The report reveals a significant shift in the location preferences of top AI talents. Previously, only 11 percent of top AI talents chose to work in China, compared to nearly 60 percent in the US. The latest survey shows that 28 percent of top AI talents now choose to work in China, while 42 percent are in the US. This narrowing gap indicates China’s growing appeal and capabilities in AI, driven by rapid industry expansion and intensified talent cultivation efforts by universities and tech companies.
Despite the US’s dominant position, China’s increasing indigenous AI capabilities and the shift in top AI talent migration highlight the need for the US to bolster measures against China’s industry and research development. The US must enhance its research attractiveness and effectively hinder China’s AI progress. However, China’s ongoing advancements in research and development demonstrate resilience against multiple rounds of US sanctions.
The American business community has consistently opposed US sanctions targeting China, citing substantial investments and profit interests in the country. This opposition has been a persistent obstacle to imposing extensive sanctions. However, the importance of the Chinese market for American businesses is decreasing. Last year, American and Western companies withdrew hundreds of billions of dollars in profits from China, and investment institutions continue to reduce their investment scales. This trend suggests that future US government sanctions against China may face less resistance from the business community.
Overall, China’s AI development faces significant challenges due to excessive restrictions and sanctions imposed by the US. These measures severely hinder technological research and application, exacerbated by China’s limited openness and social freedom. Currently, China’s AI development relies heavily on past accumulations. As US sanctions deepen and targeted measures strengthen, China’s AI industry is poised to face even greater challenges in the future.
